Friday, May 20, 2011

Chf/Jpy at 92.84. Hmm...do we buy?

Chf/Jpy at 92.84. Hmm...do we buy? CSM has diff >4 but a Bat Bear has formed on M30. Opinions?
This was a question asked in the "Golden Apples" Skype Chat Room at 12.16 PST (3.16 EST; 8.16 GMT). I was not at my trading desk to notice what the market was doing at this time, but I thought I'll use this question to make another suggestion on how to use the trade focus numbers. The CHFJPY chart is enclosed below
If you observe the trade focus numbers very closely, you will discover that they always act as channel within which PA dances around most times before eventually breaking out. See USDJPY & Silver charts below.
The trend ultimately decides the breakout area but the market also offers us counter trend opportunities which I believe "experienced" traders can exploit to their advantage.
Patterns in technical analysis repeat themselves over and over again, and it doesn't matter what TF you are looking at. Each candle is saying something that do constitute potential trade(s). Nothing moves in a straight line, and there will be "movements in time" that equal opportunity(s) and the trader's job is to be ready - recognize these movements and trade them with excellence.
It has been said that PA can only do one of three things: trend up, trend down, or move sideways, or put in another way, stall, bounce or break through support or resistance. Sometimes these S & R levels are breached temporarily and then whipsawed in the other direction. There are always head fakes, "short squeezes" channel trades, range breaks and countless "patterns" in the market. These are all opportunities!!!
Failure at the upper channel gives room to trade to the lower channel and vice versa. For me, the moment PA gets to the trade focus number and fails, I start anticipating a reverse trade before the opposite number is reached as it will give better entry point. I look for confluence of events - divergence, 1-2-3, MTF alignment, CSM confirmation and enter without hesitation as they offer low risk, high return trades - you are entering at the start of a new move, and if you are wrong, the risk is very minimal (5-20 pips) and 85+% of the time, it is a winner. My daily target is 50 pips = 250 per week = 1000 per month. Read the piece on "Reverse use of the Trade Focus Numbers."
On PA failure to reach 9240 where I would have sold CHFJPY, I would have considered a buy @ 9264 with 9252 as stop, and 1st PT will be the TFN @ 9285. This is a 1:2 risk to reward.
See CADCHF, EURAUD, EURUSD, USDCAD, EURJPY & EURCHF.
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