Monday, July 31, 2023

#LowRiskHighRewardHighProbabilityTrades - July 31, 2023 - Testing in the Forex Lab


I will be focusing on EA# 5111 as EA# 5115 an incomplete strategy setup, was inadvertently left on.

Analysis of EA# 5111
Robot took 22 trades with 16 losers and only 6 "profiters" for 867 net points or 86.7 pips profit. Max risk was 66 points.

Below are details of trades taken

A closer look at some of the charts
Trade1 made initial profit of 237 points and profit lock was turned off to test effectiveness of MA Cross exit and trade was closed for only 38 points profit
Trade2 also made initial profit of 112 points and closed for 7 point loss

These are 3 trades closed on pullbacks before eventually continuing the trend but we want out if a trade is not moving in our favour as we don't know how far a pullback will go as we can see in the USDCHF trade below that moved over 600 points in the opposite direction.

Trade1 is from 5111 and was closed at a loss after initial profit of 146 points

Trade1 was closed for 66 points, our maximum tolerable risk but pulled back 154 points before continuing its uptrend and would have made about 172 point profit. I hate drawdowns and my maximum tolerable risk is 66 points and will be reducing this back to 60 points or below.
Trade2 was also closed for the maximum loss after 60 point profit as profit lock function was off 

Here is now our greatest lesson. Trade was closed at our maximum risk point of 66 but if trade was not closed, we would have suffered  over 600 point loss. This is why we use only a max stop loss of 66 as nobody can predict the market.

We had another opportunity to sell USDCHF @ 6.30 PST (16.30 broker time) but both currencies were strong and we don't trade 2 strong currencies against each other; therefore no trade.
5 minutes later we get signals to buy and sell some pairs but unfortunately they were all skipped due to certain filter conditions in the robot. We missed potential profit of 377 + 193 - 66 - 66 = 438 points


Action Required
1. Reduce maximum SL back to 60 points or below
2. Turn on profit lock to ensure no profitable trades above xx points turn into a loss
3. Relax the Group trade duration filter that made us miss potential profit of 377 points on USDCHF and 193 points on AUDUSD. AUDJPY trade would have ended in a loss of 66 points and NZDJPY would also have ended in a 66 point loss after initial profit of 101 points.


The robot seem to have taken too many trades @ 22 between 5 to 8 am PST but will leave current settings the same. I was testing taking every trade signals with very little filters and closing the ones not moving. The system has proven itself as very effective as just 6 profitable trades were able to cancel the loss on 16 loosing trades. Praise the Lord 🙏




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